New Nuclear Takes Another Baby Step, Commercial Grid Relief Remains to Be Seen
- Mar 24
- 4 min read
Energy Policy Perspectives Vol. 17 - March 24, 2026
At an energy conference yesterday, DOE Secretary Chris Wright announced that the U.S. DOE is on track to have three next-generation nuclear reactor pilot projects reach criticality by July 4th. This target reflects the Trump Administration’s effort to revitalize the nuclear generation industry via a series of executive orders (EOs) amid rapidly rising power demand from AI/data centers. Criticality is a physics milestone at which a reactor sustains a self-supporting nuclear chain reaction, rather than commercial validation. However, the July 4th milestone will be closely monitored to help demonstrate the viability of new reactor technologies on their path to commercialization. The details of the projects remain unclear and significant hurdles remain before new nuclear technologies are commercialized.
Structural historical challenges. Modern, large-scale (GW-scale), Gen III, nuclear generation in the U.S. has remained capital intensive, slow to permit and construct, and carries significant execution risk. The lack of standardization, strict regulations, rising labor and material costs, recent U.S. nuclear project issues, and increased public opposition had caused new nuclear deployment to stall. Structural challenges still complicate the Trump administration’s goal to quadruple the U.S. nuclear generation capacity (about 100 GW to 400 GW) by 2050. However, the momentum in American nuclear energy development has reversed and accelerated since 2023 with the administration’s efforts and with the increasingly more tangible support of well-financed, rapidly growing tech electricity demand.
Gen IV offers new options. Gen IV reactor development (fast reactors, molten salt, HTGR, etc.) introduce new construction methods, reactor physics, coolants, fuel types, supply chains, licensing, and operating regimes simultaneously in the first of a kind (FOAK) systems. Broadly defined as SMRs (Small Modular Reactors), a key outcome of new technologies is that these reactors can theoretically reach higher operating temperatures of 500-800+° C (vs. Gen III only ~300°C) which unlocks new markets for nuclear, particularly for industrial-grade heat to produce hydrogen, synthetic fuels, and for other industrial processes and pairing with thermal storage. These reactors are also expected to be more flexible, able to more easily ramp their output to pair with renewable resources and handle the modern load patterns of the grid. Their smaller more compact design also enables them to be deployed in a more distributed manner to help manage grid bottlenecks, behind the meter deployment, or co-location. In theory there is the potential for long-term cost improvements from simplified designs, passive safety controls, and factory manufacturing. Gen IV ultimately presents the potential to fundamentally change nuclear electricity generation’s economics and deployment model. Gen IV provides a unique solution to the AI load growth issue, potentially providing a faster, more flexible option to meet U.S. electricity load growth and helping the U.S. catch up to China’s electricity supply advantages.
Execution remains uncertain. Gen IV reactors remain in nascent stages and the timing of meaningful commercial deployment remains uncertain with no operating history, standardized licensing pathway, or definitive cost curve. While the new demonstration projects mark a significant step in the process of re-establishing the industry, we do not expect the first early commercial nuclear electricity generation projects to provide any relief to the strained U.S. power market until the 2030s. However, new policy momentum and the financial support of well motivated new large load customers have accelerated the timeline of new nuclear generation deployment materially over the past several years.
PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, REG AC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND DISCLAIMERS
Siebert Williams Shank & Co., LLC or its Affiliates do and seek too business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Analyst Certification
We, Christopher R. Ellinghaus and Gabriele Sorbara hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject companies and their securities. We further certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly, or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.
Financial Interests: Neither we, Christopher R. Ellinghaus or Gabriele Sorbara, nor any member of our households own securities in any of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. Neither we, nor a member of our households is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company or has another significant affiliation with the subject company. We do not know or have reason to know at the time of this publication of any other material conflict of interest.
Analyst Compensation: The authors compensation is based upon the value attributed to research services by Siebert Williams Shank institutional brokerage clients. The authors of this report are compensated based on the performance of the firm, and have not received any compensation in the past 12 months from any of the subject companies mentioned in this report. The performance of the firm is driven by its secondary trading revenues, investment banking revenues, and asset management revenues.
Siebert Williams Shank Equity Research Ratings Key
BUY: In the analyst's opinion, the stock will outperform the S&P 500 on a total return basis over the next 12 months.
HOLD: In the analyst's opinion, the stock will perform in line with the S&P 500 on a total return basis over the next 12 months.
SELL: In the analyst's opinion, the stock will underperform the S&P 500 on a total return basis over the next 12 months.
Distribution of Equity Research Ratings as of: March 23, 2026
IBC (Investment Banking Clients) is defined as companies in respect of which Siebert Williams Shank (the “firm”) or its affiliates have received or are entitled to receive compensation for investment banking services in connection with transactions that were publicly announced in the past 12 months.
Other Important Disclosures
Investment Banking Disclosures: Within the past 12 months, the research analyst authoring this report has not participated in a solicitation of any subject company mentioned within this report, with or at the request of investment bankers, for investment banking business. Within the past 12 months, the firm and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities of any subject company mentioned within this report, nor has the firm received compensation for investment banking products or services from those companies.
Firm Compensation: Within the past 12 months, the firm and its affiliates have not received compensation for any non-investment banking products or services for subject companies mentioned in this report, and none of these subject companies have been a client of the firm during the past 12 months.
Stock Ownership: The firm and its affiliates do not own 1% or more of any class of equity security in this report, and do not make a market in any such securities.
Disclaimers: The information and opinions contained in this report were prepared by the firm and have been derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, can be made as to their accuracy. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. The firm makes every effort to use valuation methodologies that it believes to be reasonable in the derivation of price targets, but we do not guarantee that such methodologies are accurate.
Additional Information: To receive any additional information upon which this report is based, please contact:
Siebert Williams Shank, Research Department
100 Wall Street, 18th Floor New York, NY 10015
212-830-4500
